tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post2054610450004304844..comments2024-02-23T18:09:21.379-05:00Comments on Solving the JonBenet Ramsey Case: Methodological IssuesDocGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17359004200002936544noreply@blogger.comBlogger180125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-89589205133718291912014-01-22T10:44:18.703-05:002014-01-22T10:44:18.703-05:00J
I'm glad my comments were of some use. I...J<br /><br />I'm glad my comments were of some use. I'm no expert on fiber transfer but I have spent a lot of time reading up on it. <br /><br />Your question about DNA on the underwear is interesting. I hope someone reading this blog can answer. I always find the DNA quite confusing. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-80577720438878604872014-01-21T09:57:09.308-05:002014-01-21T09:57:09.308-05:00Ok, thanks that does help for sure. I cant preten...Ok, thanks that does help for sure. I cant pretend to know anything about the transferring of fibers, it just seems on the surface so sketchy that the person most on this blog feel committed the crime just also happened to have fibers in the underwear of someone who was murdered and molested. That being said, I will concede that there is really no way to prove that the clothes fibers prove who the killer is.<br />I do wonder though if the underwear would still be able to be tested for DNA? If JR's DNA is found on the new underwear, how would he explain that? There have been 40 year old cold cases solved through DNA testing, so to think that this case cant be solved is infuriating. <br /><br />-J<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-27263094638984151902014-01-20T16:30:38.567-05:002014-01-20T16:30:38.567-05:00J
Maybe this will make things clearer. If the...J <br /><br />Maybe this will make things clearer. If the body already had fibers on it, then when the new panties were placed on the body, the fibers would naturally end up on the inside of the panties. It wouldn't matter if the panties were old or new. <br /><br />Were there already fibers on the body? We don't know. It's possible. It's also possibly the fibers were deposited directly from JR's shirt to the inside of the panties as he pulled them from their package and opened them up to place them on the body. <br /><br />The point is not that indirect transfer is more (or less) likely, the point is that there is no way to determine likeliness of either type of transfer. <br /><br />Actually there are clues to the type of transfer, but not in the publicly available info on this case. For example, a low number of fibers is consistent with both primary (direct) and secondary (indirect) transfer. High numbers are more likely from direct transfer. But what are the numbers? All we know is that there were four (4) red fibers on the duct tape. How many black fibers were found in the panties ? We don't know. How many is a lot? We don't know that either, as no "shed test" was done, or at least none reported publicly. A shed test tests how easily a garment gives up fibers. Another variable is the "receiving" garment, how easily does it attract fibers? <br /><br />If JR really did carry JB upstairs (BR says no, but 9 year olds are not infallible) then there could easily be black shirt fibers on her clothing, hair, face, and hands. She could easily have transferred the fibers to the "suspicious" location, herself, long before anything nasty took place that night. <br /><br />IIRC, Patsy claims to have put the longjohns on JB so that would provide on opportunity for her fibers to be transferred directly to JB, then later, indirectly to some of the objects involved in the crime. <br /><br />Why are the fibers still present after wiping down? We are dealing with microscopic (or in some cases barely macroscopic) fibers, so they would stick simply from friction, or tiny amounts of residual moisture. They could still be there even after the blood and/or semen was wiped away. <br /><br />You might want to look up the Atlanta child murders and note how fiber evidence was used in that case. I don't have room here to go into detail, but in that case fibers were found on several victims (we only have one victim in the JBR case) and those fibers were matched to the car, and home of the suspect, who did not live with the victims. <br /><br />I've tried to think logically and critically in this case, and have failed for many years. I used to think the red and black fibers both were very suspicious. Critical evaluation tells me that they mean nothing. It's the old problem of confirmation bias, if we want to see JR as the culprit, we're likely to think the black fibers mean something. In reality, they don't mean anything. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-19365274276963006502014-01-20T15:40:49.216-05:002014-01-20T15:40:49.216-05:00I couldn't agree more. What we know for sure...I couldn't agree more. What we know for sure is sufficient to solve the case. <br /><br />CHAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-22079369787212096002014-01-20T13:22:24.246-05:002014-01-20T13:22:24.246-05:00shoot..you CANNOT build a case with this being a p...shoot..you CANNOT build a case with this being a proof-point! I mis-typed. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-86336893185498022372014-01-20T13:20:40.517-05:002014-01-20T13:20:40.517-05:00I meant to say...transferred from somewhere on JBR...I meant to say...transferred from somewhere on JBR's clothing to the crotch area during the assault...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-42038150345781775242014-01-20T13:19:13.430-05:002014-01-20T13:19:13.430-05:00J, I had the same questions and the point that has...J, I had the same questions and the point that has been made, in the postings just above, is that JBR could have picked up fibers anytime during the evening that she either came into direct contact with her dad while he was wearing that shirt, or picked them up via secondary transfer. The killer, regardless of whom it was, could have then picked up the fibers and transferred them to JBR during the assault. So the point has been made that transfers can happen easily enough, and there is nothing conclusive about finding fibers from people that one has been around that could have transferred them to you innocently. I think its very suspicious that John's shirt fibers were found even though she was wiped down, and would like to know what other fibers were also found that were not wiped off. I'm just curious, not really setting out to make a big deal out of it. I think its something the prosecution can give to a jury to think about, though, even though you can build a case with this being a proof-point. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-7822397372447724512014-01-20T12:20:24.185-05:002014-01-20T12:20:24.185-05:00CH and Doc, I have read this entire blog, so if th...CH and Doc, I have read this entire blog, so if this has already been answered, then my apologies. How does secondary transfer explain the fibers being found in the new underwear? I understand there being a transfer of fibers that could have gotten inside JBR's underwear that she wore to the party that night, but not the pair she ended up being found in. <br />JR himself says he carried a sleeping JBR from the car to her bed. He doesnt mention changing her clothes at any point that night. He even goes as far as to say that he took medicine to ensure that he slept soundly through the night. Again, if I am wrong about the fibers being found inside the changed pair of underwear then my apologies for wasting time, but I thought that was the case. <br />JR might have thought he was so smart wiping down the scene as he would have had plenty of time to do so, but I ust keep coming back to those small fibers that he most likely wouldnt even think to wipe down or remove. <br /><br />-JAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-75389440524700799302014-01-19T18:58:49.375-05:002014-01-19T18:58:49.375-05:00All this makes sense to me, CH. I agree that we ca...All this makes sense to me, CH. I agree that we can't adopt a double standard, finding excuses for Patsy's fibers but none for John's. It's problems such as this that force us, as I see it, to concentrate only on what we know for sure, and to take all the rest with a grain of salt. DocGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17359004200002936544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-67150664512498595222014-01-19T15:27:06.222-05:002014-01-19T15:27:06.222-05:00That's not to say secondary transfer is more (...That's not to say secondary transfer is more (or less) likely than primary transfer. As far as I can see there is no way to say one transfer method is more (or less) likely than the other. That doesn't stop people from trying of course. Many who post on the various JB websites try to "corroborate" direct transfer of the red fibers by pretending they couldn't be in different places by secondary transfer. But of course, they could be, simply having been transferred by the killer's hands when he touched the different objects (rope, tote, tape, etc.). Also this "corroboration" due to finding fibers in multiple places is curiously lacking in the case of the black shirt fibers, yet it rarely stops people from thinking JR was in on the killing/staging. IOWs people assume direct transfer of JR's fibers w/o the "corroboration" of finding them in multiple places.<br /><br />Though logically JR is our strongest suspect, by far, and the logic that Doc presents tells us he's our suspect, we might be chagrined to find that he was unclothed (it's a possibility) during the molestation/wiping down/murder. Who knows what state of dress/undress the molester was in when he did his perverted acts? It might be a case where the killer transferred his own fibers, by secondary transfer.<br />If we are careful to be logical, the fiber evidence tells us absolutely nothing, as the fibers belong to family members and the possibility (though not the fact) of secondary transfer is great. <br /><br />-CH<br /><br />Sorry things got jumbled in the cut/past process (I had used too many characters for a single post) I think this reads correctly now. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-91631444428153120652014-01-19T15:23:27.357-05:002014-01-19T15:23:27.357-05:00I see a portion of my continuation got cut off, bu...I see a portion of my continuation got cut off, but I think people can make sense of it. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-34562941297894846892014-01-19T15:17:46.758-05:002014-01-19T15:17:46.758-05:00..... Continuing from above
post on the various ........ Continuing from above <br /><br />post on the various JB websites try to "corroborate" direct transfer of the red fibers by pretending they couldn't be in different places by secondary transfer. But of That's not to say secondary transfer is more (or less) likely than primary transfer. As far as I can see there is no way to say one transfer method is more (or less) likely than the other. That doesn't stop people from trying of course. Many who course, they could be, simply having been transferred by the killer's hands when he touched the different objects (rope, tote, tape, etc.). Also this "corroboration" due to finding fibers in multiple places is curiously lacking in the case of the black shirt fibers, yet it rarely stops people from thinking JR was in on the killing/staging. IOWs people assume direct transfer of JR's fibers w/o the "corroboration" of finding them in multiple places. <br /> <br />Though logically JR is our strongest suspect, by far, and the logic that Doc presents tells us he's our suspect, we might be chagrined to find that he was unclothed (it's a possibility) during the molestation/wiping down/murder. Who knows what state of dress/undress the molester was in when he did his perverted acts? It might be a case where the killer transferred his own fibers, by secondary transfer. <br />If we are careful to be logical, the fiber evidence tells us absolutely nothing, as the fibers belong to family members and the possibility (though not the fact) of secondary transfer is great. <br /><br />-CHAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-74559416729350027122014-01-19T15:16:31.691-05:002014-01-19T15:16:31.691-05:00Once we decide on a suspect it becomes harder to s...Once we decide on a suspect it becomes harder to see evidence as inconclusive. We want to see the black fibers as proving JR is guilty because that's just the "smoking gun" we are looking for, having already decided he's our suspect. In the same fashion, PDIs see the red fibers as the smoking gun because they can't let go of anything that implicates Patsy, having already decided she's the culprit. <br /><br />But as Doc has so painstakingly demonstrated, a joint venture between PR/JR would have resulted in dumping the body, and the 911 call would never have been made with the body in the house. So we know Patsy's fibers are not there from direct transfer. But we know that from the logic of the case, not from anything about the fiber evidence itself. <br /><br />So, if the red fibers don't have to be a smoking gun proving PR was involved, then logically the black fibers don't have to be a smoking gun either, and for the same reason, secondary transfer is a very real possibility. <br /><br />Putting the overall logic of the case aside, and just seeing where the fiber evidence leads, we have these possibilities- Black fibers from direct transfer, red from secondary, showing JR is the culprit, PR is innocent. Black from secondary, red from primary, showing PR as culprit, JR as innocent. Both colors from direct, meaning both JR/PR were involved in the staging (a perennial favorite theory on the websites) or both from indirect, meaning neither was involved. (A fifth possibility is presented below) Is there a way to tell what's most likely, just from the nature of the fiber evidence itself? No. There is really nothing suspicious about fibers that belong to family members being found anywhere in the home or anywhere on the victim. We either have to accept that secondary transfer is a possibility for both the black and red (JR/PR) fibers, or we have to reject the possibility of secondary transfer, but there is no logic to that. There is no reason the fibers (either color) couldn't be transferred indirectly. <br /><br /><br />Imagine that the Ramsey dog had been at home and that the dog's hairs were found ENTWINED in the garrotte, or INSIDE the panties. Would we conclude that this "smoking gun" proves the dog molested JB, fashioned a garrotte and strangled her? We'd simply accept the reality of indirect transfer. The fiber evidence we are dealing with is a good deal smaller than a single strand of dog hair. The fibers would be very easy to transfer, indirectly. This would be especially true if JR carried her upstairs, and PR redressed her for bed, their fibers would be all over JB, on the body, the clothes, and the hair. There's also no telling where a child, sleeping or awake, might touch herself, transferring fibers in the process. <br /><br />-Continued.... <br /><br />-CH<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-2826691627144835072014-01-18T09:54:21.183-05:002014-01-18T09:54:21.183-05:00Well, according to CH, the fibers could have inadv...Well, according to CH, the fibers could have inadvertently been transmitted from her outer clothing or her hair, body, etc., to her panties by her attacker, whoever that might have been. So the presence of those fibers in the panties does not tell us that John was necessarily the attacker. Of course there's lots of evidence that DOES point to John, so imo the fiber evidence isn't all that important.DocGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17359004200002936544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-11312024869154071412014-01-18T07:10:53.281-05:002014-01-18T07:10:53.281-05:00I would just like to add that if Jonbenet was asle...I would just like to add that if Jonbenet was asleep when the Ramsey's got home, then she could have had John's shirt fibers on her fingers but would not have touched the crotch area during her sleep. Could they have been on her fingers from earlier in the evening, and she went to the bathroom, transferring the fibers then? Certainly it is possible. I personally feel its very unlikely, given that she was wiped down, and we suppose she was wiped down to remove John's sperm, any blood, and prints. Surely he would have wiped this area. I know we can't prove anything, but isn't it odd that of all the things JR touched that evening and could have transferred to her crotch, and even after being wiped down, that fibers from John's shirt would be found. Wonder what the odds are of just finding his shirt in her crotch but no dog fibers, mom's fibers, toilet paper fibers, etc. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-24268018525654939212014-01-17T22:08:30.723-05:002014-01-17T22:08:30.723-05:00I too felt convinced at one point that John's ...I too felt convinced at one point that John's fibers could be a smoking gun. However, CH explained, in a comment on another post, that they could have gotten inside those panties indirectly. Since John carried JonBenet into the house, his fibers could have gotten onto her hands, and been transferred from her fingers to other parts of her body, including the crotch area. Fiber evidence from the clothing of someone already close to the victim is rarely enough to prove much of anything.DocGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17359004200002936544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-67751259176154468622014-01-17T11:58:47.141-05:002014-01-17T11:58:47.141-05:00Doc I have asked this before and though its suppos...Doc I have asked this before and though its supposedly not completely reliable, the fibers from JR's shirt being on the INSIDE of JBR's underwear is the smoking gun! His story was that he took a sleeping JBR upstairs and she went straight to bed. He doesnt mention a changing of the underwear, nor does he mention being up with her at any point in the night. There is not 1 explanation to explain his shirt fibers being there, unless he was there when she died. <br />The next morning when JR "found" JBR, was there shirt fibers from JR found from the night before mixed with the shirt he was wearing in the morning? I understand that there is fibers can transfer, but she was wearing different underwear then the night before! <br />The RN to me was simply JR believing he was smarter than anybody else and he thought just like Jodi Arias, he could fool everybody. Had PR and JR been interviews seperately from the beginning or had JR not been ruled out OR had there been more than 1 detective on scene, JR would be sitting in a cell right now. <br /><br />-JAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-69835608441616274002014-01-12T10:36:47.123-05:002014-01-12T10:36:47.123-05:00It's possible, but not all that probable. T...It's possible, but not all that probable. There was only one cop in the house for a while, but she was not the only other person. It would be very dangerous to carry the body in from the car - one of the invited guests, or one of the victim's advocates, or Rev. Holverstock, might see. Patsy might see. Relocating the body from one level of the house to another would only be done before the cops arrived. If the body was in the trunk of the car it was moved into the basement between the time the 911 call was placed and the time the cops showed up, imo. <br /><br /> Relocating within the basement is possible, if no one else was down there at the time. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-39894417639930080962014-01-12T10:35:59.026-05:002014-01-12T10:35:59.026-05:00The only reason for John to hide the body in the b...The only reason for John to hide the body in the basement was directly connected with the note. The two go together as elements in the kidnap staging. The body needed to be hidden so Patsy would assume JonBenet had been taken out of the house.<br /><br />If they were in it together, and had not decided to stage a kidnapping then there would have been no reason to hide the body. They'd have openly displayed it, probably in her bedroom -- claiming that some sort of pedophile psychopath had broken into the house and attacked her. DocGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17359004200002936544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-67810482248828851932014-01-12T10:23:41.967-05:002014-01-12T10:23:41.967-05:00 I think if there was no ransom note then the poli... I think if there was no ransom note then the police would have wondered more so as to why John (and Patsy) did not search the house thoroughly, if they did not have the kidnapping theory.evejnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-30272305238800826542014-01-11T10:42:40.563-05:002014-01-11T10:42:40.563-05:00Good question.
Printers make lots of noise, so pr...Good question.<br /><br />Printers make lots of noise, so printing it out could have awakened Patsy or Burke.<br /><br />Also, if the note got into the hands of the authorities, they could probably have traced it to his printer. Every printhead has unique wear marks that can be identified from a printout.DocGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17359004200002936544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-2234996175107374602014-01-11T09:27:29.551-05:002014-01-11T09:27:29.551-05:00Doc, don't get me wrong, I'm still a stron...Doc, don't get me wrong, I'm still a strong advocate of your theory but I still have to ask myself questions. Maybe you can help. If John's original purpose was to only have to trick Patsy with the Ransom Note, why didn't he just type it and print it out? Why risk Patsy being able to recognize his handwriting?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01254034380329706055noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-41974067525550062342014-01-11T07:41:55.450-05:002014-01-11T07:41:55.450-05:00Oops, my mistake. Arndt was upstairs with Patsy an...Oops, my mistake. Arndt was upstairs with Patsy and the friends, but NOT with JonBenet's body, which had not yet been discovered.DocGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17359004200002936544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-4349475491502871592014-01-10T22:41:14.482-05:002014-01-10T22:41:14.482-05:00For a considerable length of time, Arndt was the o...For a considerable length of time, Arndt was the only police officer present in the home. She was upstairs, and busy keeping an eye on JonBenet's body, Patsy, and all the friends. During that time (over an hour as I recall) John was out of her sight and could have done all sorts of things without being observed.<br /><br />The garage was connected to the house, so John could have moved the body from the car trunk to the basement room without being observed by neighbors. It would have been risky, but it would definitely be better than having the police at some point search the car and discover JonBenet's body in the trunk. He got lucky and was not observed.<br /><br />At least that's one possibility. Another is that, as I say, he could have decided not to store it in the trunk initially out of fear that something could go wrong and it could be discovered there, either by Patsy or the police.DocGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17359004200002936544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-88479522770707366212014-01-10T22:27:13.116-05:002014-01-10T22:27:13.116-05:00I don't think JR could have or would have move...I don't think JR could have or would have moved the body from the car to the windowless room while a detective and friends were in the house. It would be nearly impossible to do w/o being seen by someone. He'd have to carry it from the car into the house and down the basement. <br /><br />It's possible that he moved the body from one location in the basement, to another. He could for example have originally put the body in the crawl space in the basement, then moved it to the windowless room. The crawl space probably wouldn't be checked by Patsy, whereas the WC might well be checked. <br /><br />Since the killing likely happened in the basement, the basement is a sensible place to hide the body. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com