tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post6534047652245928272..comments2024-02-23T18:09:21.379-05:00Comments on Solving the JonBenet Ramsey Case: In It Together?DocGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17359004200002936544noreply@blogger.comBlogger216125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-85253121547615472982015-02-20T23:01:34.866-05:002015-02-20T23:01:34.866-05:00Bayesian analysis is a statistical method used to ...Bayesian analysis is a statistical method used to analyze data of various kinds. Since there is no database associated with this case, I'm not sure what that type of analysis could accomplish. I'm not a statistician so maybe something like that would be possible, but don't ask me to explain it.DocGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17359004200002936544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-974858536462897702015-02-17T07:43:00.476-05:002015-02-17T07:43:00.476-05:00Hi doc, I am interested to know has anyone done ba...Hi doc, I am interested to know has anyone done bayesian analysis on this case. I myself am not familiar with this method. But the other day i came accross how bayesian thinking can be applied in investigating the historicity of jesus ressurection. <br /><br />Or can anyone on this blog give some example how bayesian thinking can be used to analyze this case.<br /><br />thank you,<br />winie79Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-85487732268572227382013-12-19T03:30:12.133-05:002013-12-19T03:30:12.133-05:00Vern, I was getting seriously bored with your schi...Vern, I was getting seriously bored with your schizophrenic ramblings until you came up with your most ridiculous thought yet...that the Ramseys covered for Burke because, among other things, they thought the loss of school-time would be detrimental to him. That was good for quite a chuckle. Thanks.Vern's Therapistnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-36657638489862924282013-12-18T23:23:07.355-05:002013-12-18T23:23:07.355-05:00Yes, you got that from me, when I quoted Fausto Br...Yes, you got that from me, when I quoted Fausto Brugnatelli, a professional document examiner in Italy, who also suspects John of having written the note. You are of course correct that we can rule out a child. We can certainly rule out Burke. But I see no way John can be ruled out. That was a huge mistake.DocGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17359004200002936544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-64314234395855339192013-12-18T22:06:52.247-05:002013-12-18T22:06:52.247-05:00I read somewhere (perhaps on your blog?) that some...I read somewhere (perhaps on your blog?) that some handwriting expert said something to the effect of, "the proper procedure in this profession is only to rule people IN. We should never rule anyone out." This certainly sounds like the proper way to do things. While it's plausible to say that a person's handwriting has certain similarities to a QD, I don't believe it's plausible for anyone to say there is absolutely no way a suspect could have written a QD...unless we're talking about a child, that is. We can say that a child can be reasonably ruled out when the handwriting looks "mature." So for tose who say John has beeen ruled out as the writer of the RN, I, too would like to know how they can say with 100% certainty that it is impossible for John to have written it. Hope all that makes sense.Pipernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-55999758769576902002013-11-17T22:29:55.465-05:002013-11-17T22:29:55.465-05:00"Oh yes indeed, you'll find this notion m..."Oh yes indeed, you'll find this notion mention on quite a few forums. It makes the most sense. Burke was already very "messed up" in the head, and they feared this would break him, make him commit suicide, swallow Draino, what have you. They were trying to "save" their last child. Burke would have not known if he hit her fatally. The parents could tell him she's OK, go back to sleep, and then sometime later in the night (morning actually), the "kidnapping" takes place. "<br /><br />Yes, I've seen this theory. It's absurd. <br /><br />1. Would BR really feel better knowing that an intruder killed his sister just before the wounds he himself inflicted killed her? he'd know very well that she went down like a ton of bricks when he hit her. Would he even fall for this charade? <br /> <br />2. PR and JR are running the ultimate risk, death penalty. If they were lucky, life in prison. No way did they run that great a risk for the questionable notion of making BR believe he had not killed his sister. <br /><br />3. If BR hit her, PR/JR most likely would call an ambulance in the hopes that the ER doctors could do something for her. You have them transforming from normal innocent parents to murderers in a matter of minutes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-90463813623583401992013-11-14T23:36:57.678-05:002013-11-14T23:36:57.678-05:00I'm glad you agree that Hunter was right not t...I'm glad you agree that Hunter was right not to attempt a prosecution. Without have much of a clue as to who did what he'd have been inviting an acquittal for sure. And once acquitted that person can't be tried again for the same crime.<br /><br />And I agree that Patsy's support of John's version of what happened regarding both the 911 call and the broken window story would make prosecution of John more difficult. To explain how she could have been manipulated would require a step by step analysis of the case that some jurors might find difficult to follow. On the other hand, all that's really necessary at this point, since Patsy is no longer with us, is to establish that their story about John breaking the window earlier is a patent lie. Once you convince the jury that John lied, then the jig is up, regardless of what Patsy's motive might have been in supporting him. <br /><br />As for the computer font question, I'm not sure what you're getting at. As I demonstrated, it looks to me like John could have used Courier New as his model.DocGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17359004200002936544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-19646827245157993792013-11-14T21:30:24.669-05:002013-11-14T21:30:24.669-05:00As a former prosecutor, I think DA Hunter was righ...As a former prosecutor, I think DA Hunter was right in not prosecuting. I don't think he could have gotten a conviction with the evidence at hand given all the plausible scenarios. Thus, better to hold off in the hope of gathering convincing evidence down the road than to risk a double jeopardy problem.<br /><br />I'm inclined to concur in DocG's analysis although, like all theories of this case, it does have its problems. One major problem is it requires Patsy, who is innocent of both the murder and cover-up under this theory, to actively mislead investigators who are trying to find her daughter's killer. Pretty unusual conduct in my experience although it is possible, as DocG suggests, that she was vulnerable and thus manipulated by John.<br /><br />As to the handwriting issue, I find intriguing the notion that the style perhaps was adopted by John from a computer font. Have any internet sleuths attempted to identify a particular program that mirrors the letters in the note?marknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-8449027579874590162013-11-01T10:49:50.044-04:002013-11-01T10:49:50.044-04:00The Grand Jury wanted to charge both because they ...The Grand Jury wanted to charge both because they were not sure who did it. Patsy told some white lies but she did not kill her daughter.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-81948989802640375632013-10-17T23:30:12.068-04:002013-10-17T23:30:12.068-04:00Vern got a sex change, lol! I'll bet he took ...Vern got a sex change, lol! I'll bet he took some valium and it made him delirious. The delirium caused him to make a crazed confession that he identifies as Vernonica. Vernonica now has a golf-club swinging son which is why he knows so much about a why a 9 year old boy would want to molest his sister and then hit her over the head afterwards. Vernonica remembers when she was a little girl (er, boy) at age 6 and how he thought ending his own life over his sexual confusion gave him the idea to strangle himself, even though his other 3rd grade friends thought the best approach would be to jump out in front of a care or ride your bike off of an embankment (easy to do in Boulder). Fortunately, Vernonica went to school and became a brilliant engineer and scientist who knows how to apply the laws of logic and scientific method. You should listen to Vernonica, she's probably John Ramsey's aunt Betty in real life and knows exactly what happened that night. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-40680786223758061172013-10-17T11:18:18.676-04:002013-10-17T11:18:18.676-04:00The software is playing games with me. Some posts ...The software is playing games with me. Some posts are either not getting through or else being delayed after approval. When that happens I'll post them here, but you might wind up seeing some twice. Here's the latest from "Vern's sister":<br /><br />I am Vern's sister Vernonica and I wanted to put in my 2 cents about this whole sordid scene. I think it was a suicide. See, JonBenet was so depressed from all the beauty pageants that her Mom dragged her through, that she decided to suffocate herself on Christmas night. She made that choker and tightened it until she passed out. Ok, now you might be thinking she could not do that, but I bet she could if she did it right. When her Mom found her lifeless in her bed, she knew it would be too embarrassing for the news to get out that JonBenet killed herself because then people would point their finger to Patsy the Mom. So, Patsy bashed her head in and made it look like an intruder did it. Mr. Ramsey helped out with the cover up too, because he did not want his wife to be shamed throughout the whole town and she was a loose canon as it was already. But what they didn't know is that JonBenet was not totally dead when they bashed her head in. When the coroner guy said that the cause of death was suffocation, then they believed that they didn't kill her and were relieved. DocGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17359004200002936544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-52054255693720731942013-10-17T04:41:53.806-04:002013-10-17T04:41:53.806-04:00I am Vern's sister Vernonica and I wanted to p...I am Vern's sister Vernonica and I wanted to put in my 2 cents about this whole sordid scene. I think it was a suicide. See, JonBenet was so depressed from all the beauty pageants that her Mom dragged her through, that she decided to suffocate herself on Christmas night. She made that choker and tightened it until she passed out. Ok, now you might be thinking she could not do that, but I bet she could if she did it right. When her Mom found her lifeless in her bed, she knew it would be too embarrassing for the news to get out that JonBenet killed herself because then people would point their finger to Patsy the Mom. So, Patsy bashed her head in and made it look like an intruder did it. Mr. Ramsey helped out with the cover up too, because he did not want his wife to be shamed throughout the whole town and she was a loose canon as it was already. But what they didn't know is that JonBenet was not totally dead when they bashed her head in. When the coroner guy said that the cause of death was suffocation, then they believed that they didn't kill her and were relieved. Verns sisternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-42886294061598480832013-10-14T18:01:05.723-04:002013-10-14T18:01:05.723-04:00For some reason, the last comment by "anonymo...For some reason, the last comment by "anonymous" isn't getting posted, so I'll paste it here:<br /><br />Vern, have you done a handwriting analysis? I'm still not able to follow your theory(ies). You say you are convinced Patsy wrote the note. What convinces you? I think John's samples look almost like the ransom note, and those Johnisms that DocG noted, well..wow, just wow. Those blew me away. But you haven't said anything that wows me. You say Burke probably did it, but he has no history of sex issues and was only 9, going on 10. My sister hit me over the head with a tennis racket one time, real hard, when we were kids, so the whole golf club thing to me reeks of kids being kids, and maybe kids who needed more supervision in the backyard. You say no way John had a motive, but Burke had a motive and so did Patsy? I'm so confused by your position, could you just lay out a theory from start to end, connecting all the dots, for us to follow? That would be better than saying others on this blog are seeing what they want to see, are intentionally obfuscating, etc. I'm just having a really hard time seeing what you see because I need you to put the whole theory together in one cohesive opinion. Thanks, KH P.S. If you do think Patsy could be crazy, why can't John also be a crazy? Men are no less crazy then women. DocGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17359004200002936544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-89443325877719390742013-10-14T16:17:13.155-04:002013-10-14T16:17:13.155-04:00Vern, have you done a handwriting analysis? I'...Vern, have you done a handwriting analysis? I'm still not able to follow your theory(ies). You say you are convinced Patsy wrote the note. What convinces you? I think John's samples look almost like the ransom note, and those Johnisms that DocG noted, well..wow, just wow. Those blew me away. But you haven't said anything that wows me. You say Burke probably did it, but he has no history of sex issues and was only 9, going on 10. My sister hit me over the head with a tennis racket one time, real hard, when we were kids, so the whole golf club thing to me reeks of kids being kids, and maybe kids who needed more supervision in the backyard. You say no way John had a motive, but Burke had a motive and so did Patsy? I'm so confused by your position, could you just lay out a theory from start to end, connecting all the dots, for us to follow? That would be better than saying others on this blog are seeing what they want to see, are intentionally obfuscating, etc. I'm just having a really hard time seeing what you see because I need you to put the whole theory together in one cohesive opinion. Thanks, KH P.S. If you do think Patsy could be crazy, why can't John also be a crazy? Men are no less crazy then women. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-24048037289018153852013-10-13T18:01:11.252-04:002013-10-13T18:01:11.252-04:00Vern, before you go calling other people's the...Vern, before you go calling other people's theories "bad," I would suggest you lay out one (or two, since you have been going back and forth between BDI and some version of a PDI or Patsy was involved) theories of your own, from start to finish. I have tried to piece together your comments on this thread just to see if I can follow your train of thought and decide if you have a case. I would be interested in listening to you if you could lay that out for the readers here. Again, just in the name of seeking the truth, since I really don't want to make any assumptions or rule out any logical case. Help us out here ...its one thing to play devil's advocate, but I sense that you have what you think is a solid case and would just like you to lay it out in a single blog entry. - KHAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-78369362078205604562013-10-13T17:45:44.471-04:002013-10-13T17:45:44.471-04:00"Since you are so certain that JR did this cr..."Since you are so certain that JR did this crime alone, why, then, in your opinion, would the GJ seek an indictment against Patsy?" <br /><br />Because contrary to your theory, the evidence seems to implicate both parents in the crime. The RN only adds to the problem.. IOWS the GJ didn't figure out the real solution, but it sure looked to them like both parents were involved. That's why I say that if they covered for BR they both implicated themselves in the murder of their daughter. They took a substantial risk of being indicted and possibly convicted for a murder that, in your theory, they didn't commit. That would be very stupid of them to do that, hence my conclusion that they didn't do that. <br /><br />I don't mean to be rude but I'm completely tired of arguing the silliness of BDI. If that's your theory fine, but I will not spend any more time on it, or on you. <br /><br />Also you needn't end each of your posts with ad hominem. <br /><br />One final thing, many people here post anonymously, so be sure you aren't mixing up who said what. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-61831283112113519722013-10-13T14:45:28.417-04:002013-10-13T14:45:28.417-04:00" You can't be serious. You do realize th..." You can't be serious. You do realize the GJ wanted both of them indicted? "<br /><br />Of course I am serious, it's a major component of my theory of Burke having done this crime (if you want to call it a "crime", I am always mixed about this: I feel it was an accident), and the parents covering for his actions. <br /><br />The grand jury would have probably pushed for indictment with, or without, the ransom note. I don't really think it would have made any difference. It was certainly NOT because of the ransom note that they were considering an indictment, if that's what you mean. As things went, the ransom note created about as much positive as it did negative (meaning, for every aspect of it that worked for them, an equal aspect of it worked against them). The ransom note turned out to be a "draw", effectively.<br /><br />Since you are so certain that JR did this crime alone, why, then, in your opinion, would the GJ seek an indictment against Patsy? You said she was not in the know, was not covering, and was not part of the crime (all of which I disagree with, by the way). <br /><br />"People see what they want to see", you said several times on this board. There is no greater example of that than your own arguments and theories. You intentionally obfuscate what are clear patterns and intuitive conclusions, to your own benefit and to fit your theory. That's bad.Verns Dadnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-34305110745629048782013-10-13T04:36:11.078-04:002013-10-13T04:36:11.078-04:00"PR/JR did not implicate themselves by coveri..."PR/JR did not implicate themselves by covering for Burke" <br /><br />You can't be serious. You do realize the GJ wanted both of them indicted? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-22663885312654993022013-10-12T16:52:04.419-04:002013-10-12T16:52:04.419-04:00" Burke didn't do it because there would ..." Burke didn't do it because there would be no reason for PR/JR to implicate themselves in murder to cover for a boy who could not be charged. "<br /><br />PR/JR did not implicate themselves by covering for Burke. It's simply a cover, that is what a "cover" is. The intent was that they would not be implicating themselves. They went to the trouble of writing a ransom note as part of the elaborate cover, boldly (and perhaps desperately) believing it would be believable. <br /><br />The reason for the cover for Burke was so that the little marauding tyke did not realize what he'd done. The boy was already messed up in the head, they thought that the realization that he'd killed his sister would "do him in". Plus, the whole investigation and police questioning, not to mention possible punishment and loss of school time, would be detrimental to him.<br /><br />Obviously they thought the cover would work. <br /><br />Your "common sense" is very lacking, and most people would agree that it's erroneous. Verns Dadnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-90196674161520489292013-10-12T05:29:48.231-04:002013-10-12T05:29:48.231-04:00Respectfully Vern's dad, we have murder.
...Respectfully Vern's dad, we have murder. <br /><br />I'm playing along that the bash on the skull was not intended. I don't really think that's the case. But either way, the wrapping of a ligature around her neck is a deliberate act, thought out (not spontaneous) prior to being done. The intent was to ensure death. <br /><br />The garrotting is 1st degree murder. <br /><br />Burke didn't do it because there would be no reason for PR/JR to implicate themselves in murder to cover for a boy who could not be charged. Really, that's just common sense. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-85968427025424147212013-10-12T04:42:24.689-04:002013-10-12T04:42:24.689-04:00" Once again: if the evidence were as "o..." Once again: if the evidence were as "overwhelming" as you claim, she'd have been tried and convicted years ago "<br /><br />I meant to say "Overwhelmingly" apparent that this was an accident which the Ramseys tried to cover up. I did NOT mean that there was overwhelming evidence to convict. But in fact, the grand jury was prepared to do just that, but was blindsided by DA Hunter. Your conclusion based on the "logic of the case" is not a logical conclusion outside of a sterile laboratory. Your logic is very simplistic and does not take into account the multi-faceted nature of this case. Verns Dadnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-37658690026895493532013-10-12T04:20:31.193-04:002013-10-12T04:20:31.193-04:00So to correct you Anonymous, what we have is an &q...So to correct you Anonymous, what we have is an "Overall Accident", with tinges of murder 2 or manslaughter because of the "mercy killing" aspect to the case. <br /><br />Burke broke Patsy's precious pageant princess, and she'd not have it damaged like that -- what would people say -- JonBenet would no longer be number 1 on stage -- so she decided to snuff her out "for her own good".<br /><br />JonBenet may have lived through the bat clobbering, we will never know. She would have needed quick medical attention.Verns Dadnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-86043807833999860532013-10-12T03:53:29.754-04:002013-10-12T03:53:29.754-04:00Once again: if the evidence were as "overwhel...Once again: if the evidence were as "overwhelming" as you claim, she'd have been tried and convicted years ago. ALL the handwriting evidence is inconclusive, because as I've said, it's extremely difficult to assess handwriting that's been deliberately disguised. And you can't go simply by similarities, because it's always possible to find "similarities" of some sort or other in the writing of any two people. And the more documents you use, the more such similarities you are going to find. And differences aren't much help either when dealing with a deceptive document, because one can assume that the writer tried to disguise his hand by making it look different than usual.<br /><br />Which is why I've based my conclusion far more on the logic of the case (see post at top) than the handwriting evidence. I have a feeling that most of what I've written here has gone over your head, Vern, so I see no point in responding any more to your posts.<br /><br />DocGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17359004200002936544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-69881165623097062272013-10-12T02:11:57.942-04:002013-10-12T02:11:57.942-04:00Again, you are dancing around the issue, rather el...Again, you are dancing around the issue, rather elegantly, but it's still a dance. Of course the switching between "a" styles is not rampant, but if it is seen only once, it would be of significance. Couple this with some 250 other similarities according to one analyst, and you have good reason to believe the note was written by Patsy. The sample you refer to where her writing is erratic, was Patsy REALLY trying to disguise her writing and not make it look like the ransom note. Of course, the heat was on her, so she did her best in that effort, but not good enough, because we can STILL see MANY similarities to her ransom note. <br /><br />Patsy herself claimed to be ambidextrous, that goes for writing too. She could write legibly with both hands but right was more natural for her. So when I say "write well", yes she could write reasonably well with the left hand, but in the ransom note effort, she tried to make it more erratic. And in the subsequent sample requested by police of her left hand writing, of course she went all out to try to disguise it.<br /><br />I am sorry Doc, but the ransom note was indeed penned by Patsy. There is overwhelming evidence to support that. So if you want John to be the lone killer, you'll need to fashion your theory with Patsy being the ransom note writer. Oh, can't do that, eh? Then it would not be a lone job by John. Well, I am sorry Doc, but that did not happen. The evidence shows that. Verns Dadnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6494242281396312957.post-17221985329694038042013-10-12T01:44:25.041-04:002013-10-12T01:44:25.041-04:00Thanks, 'Anonymous', some good points. S...Thanks, 'Anonymous', some good points. Someone did kill her. But the blow to her head was an accident. Yes, a boy age 10 could impart that sort of blow with enough leverage. <br /><br />Much has been made of the injury, the recessed portion which took out a chunk of her skull, and the fissure running to the front of the head. It does outline a metal golf club rather remarkably. However, I have done a lot of thinking about that injury, and it looks like it could be a baseball bat, swung perpendicularly to her head. The curved part of the bat head is clearly seen as the left side of that chunk being taken out, with the right side being rather "smashed". This tells me that the blow could have come from a baseball bat from the left side of her head (her left side), perpendicular to her head. The amount of leverage and moment that could be created from such a blow could be extraordinary, and I opine that a 10 year old could do it.<br /><br />Finally, the garrote and string were part of the staging effort, not a murder. The intention was to make the accident Look like a murder. There was only a murder committed that night IF and only IF one of the Ramseys or Burke used that garrotte to snuff the remaining life out of a mortally wounded Jonbenet. Verns Dadnoreply@blogger.com